⒈ Cyclical Marketing Case Study

Tuesday, October 26, 2021 6:46:56 PM

Cyclical Marketing Case Study



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All News. Analyst Recommendations. Capital Markets Transactions. New Contracts. Profit warnings. Press Releases. With recent on-going acceleration of the recovery, the latest July reading was 5. The current unemployment rate is now well below the peak of the Great Recession which stood at 8. There are still 71, unemployed Houstonians had jobs before the pandemic, and another 43, that are out of work but not counted as formally unemployed because they became discouraged about job prospects and quit looking for work. The COVID employment data presented a frightening economic landscape that became the economic focus of the public and press. The lockdowns and massive job losses generated widespread fear and a profound economic shock.

However, when look at the personal income data for the same period, it shows rising disposable income, record levels of retail sales and other big-ticket spending, and personal savings rising by hundreds of billions of dollars. These extra dollars did not reduce the number of people out of work, but they did replace all the personal income that was lost following the April lockdown — and more. The difference, of course, was the trillions in fiscal stimulus payments from the federal government and emergency monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Since the lockdown ended, Americans have been — collectively if not individually — richer than ever before.

The national accounting rules for fiscal stimulus can be misleading in the current pandemic context. Under these rules, stimulus certainly does not directly change the short-run employment or unemployment numbers, and because it is not current production it does not count in GDP or help determine whether recession is underway or how deep it is. But it matters in personal income, consumer spending, and saving , and specifically in understanding the current record level of retail sales and heavy spending on big-ticket autos and homes.

Just over half the money was funneled almost directly to individuals or small businesses. All of these are now closed. Like the earlier spending, about half the money is channeled to individuals and small businesses, and it had an immediate impact on income and spending. The other half of these funds target virus relief much less directly than the first package and the impact on spending will be less immediate. Figure 8 shows the broad economic impact of the stimulus through July of this year. This is a large positive shock. As serious as the employment damage has been, all the income lost to unemployment was fully replaced by early stimulus.

The broken red line shows the arrival of the second and third rounds in total personal income. Personal income and continues at levels 8. Figure 9 makes the impact on personal income more concrete. Both lines compare a measure of the level of income to its level in February before the pandemic. If above zero, we indicate levels of activity stronger than before the pandemic started, and negative if below.

The red line compares wages, salaries, and the earnings of the self-employed to pre-pandemic levels. This is the largest single piece of personal income — our paychecks — and is not tied to stimulus. It took a hit of 9. Since the arrival of the vaccine, wages and salaries have been growing steadily even as the stimulus wears off, and this July they were 5. The blue line is total personal income including the stimulus. It shows the very large and immediate impact of Stimulus I on personal income in April , quickly pushing income By late , the positive effects of the stimulus were slowly wearing off but were renewed by Stimulus II and III which again pushed personal income to all-time highs. Now that stimulus is unlikely to be renewed, it will be up to wages and salaries to carry the load for future income growth.

American have proved adept at spending these dollars from heaven, and by this July the savings advantage over pre-COVID levels had shrunk to But even as the pandemic ends, there is still an ample emergency reserve. See Figure The stimulus explains the heavy levels of spending on retail sales throughout the pandemic. Figure 11 Retail sales returned to pre-pandemic levels by July and the latest July data shows spending still Sales have slipped back from a record April as stimulus wore off, but only by about one percentage point so far. Note the definition of retail sales used in Figure 11 is broad, including auto sales, restaurants, and e-commerce, for example. The chart shows percentage differences in retail sales between this July and the pre-COVID peak February peak, with specific sectors arranged from largest to smallest by total sales as we move from top to bottom.

Among the largest sectors, big-ticket auto sales were up by Just a few months ago, the chart reflected a clear COVID-driven pattern of large losses in sectors like food service, gasoline, and clothing, while groceries, e-commerce, building materials, and books and hobbies stood out as clear winners. The disappearance of this distinctive COVID pattern coincides with the arrival of the vaccine and reduced fear of the virus. Is Houston sharing in this surge in local income?

There is no reason why we would not be fully engaged in both the pandemic and the resulting fiscal programs. The taxable retail sales data for Houston is available only through the fourth quarter of , but it shows an immediate increase in retail of The fourth quarter then flattened out, no doubt waiting for the distribution of the second and third round of stimulus payments. Local auto and truck sales fell 41 percent to 14, units when the pandemic hit and lockdowns began, but then steadily rose to match pre-pandemic levels at 23, by December.

The latest rounds of stimulus spending then saw sales spike to 30, units in March of this year and stay at high levels through June, only to fall back to 22, units in July as stimulus finally waned. Everything related to Houston single-family housing is booming. Low interest rates are playing a role, stimulus checks helped with the down payment, and having your spouse and school-age children home for 24 hours a day argued for an extra bedroom or two.

Figure 12 shows the early pandemic collapse in sales of existing homes during the stay-home orders, followed by an on-going surge to seasonally-adjusted 10, units by January. Sales have peaked with the end of fiscal stimulus, but still are running 6. Existing home inventory fell from an already low 3. The shock absorber for strong demand and zero supply was a jump in the median single-family price by How bad was this downturn? The employment figures show a devastating recession, while the personal income data and spending point to continued good times. Since March , I have argued that the outcome of the current pandemic for Houston would be a moderate to serious recession once gains from stimulus payments offset and stabilized losses from wild swings in employment.

Moderate U. The index is shown in Figure 13 along with a similar U. Looking at the more recent data in the right hand chart, we see the local economy currently sits on a line somewhere between moderate to strong growth. Local growth is positive through July but much slower than the rest of the country. While the index tells us little about the level of the economy, just its direction and rate of change, this slow progress again confirms Houston status as laggard in the state and national recovery. There is another way to ask how serious this downturn was — the regional economic base.

To find the key drivers of expansion and contraction in a local economy, economists often look at a select group of sectors called the economic base. Exports bring fresh revenue and income into the metro area, drive local expansion, and create growth opportunities among secondary, inherently local activities like bars, restaurants, retail, dry cleaners, barbers, or most of health care.

When COVID stuck, most of the impact of social-distancing fell on the secondary industries with little ability to affect regional growth. After all, base customers were not here but scattered across the state or around the world. Vaccines are strongly clearing the way for a return of contact-sensitive activity. But the base is less fortunate. While progress on vaccination is moving forward rapidly in the U. The right side of the figure shows how the total base — oil plus not-oil — has moved through a oil-industry credit crunch and then the pandemic.

Most of the pain from these base losses was concentrated in U. Instead of quickly finding their footing after the lockdown ended, the base losses — oil and non-oil — simply continued to mount through February of this year. Losses stabilized in February, and by this July 18, base jobs were back 4, in oil , accounting for the return of only How do we think about this recovery? We have restored Further recovery will come from three sources that should follow one after the other and into the COVID distance-sensitive jobs are already returning first as the vaccine is effective and public health restrictions are lifted, followed by the economic base jobs that must wait for the national and global economy to heal, and finally a slower return of oil-related jobs in late and beyond.

The last of the COVID social-distancing losses return slowly through the rest of this year as we wait for broader public vaccination, for school to begin in September to free up many low-wage caretakers, and for the end of all federal pandemic unemployment payments. We have already made great progress in bringing back many of these social-distancing jobs, with recovery of The economic base is about our capacity to sell to the rest of the nation or world, and it drives the critical pieces of the local business cycle. The national recovery in employment is expected sometime in mid-to-late , and the global GDP data is also forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels next year.

This brings local non-oil activity back on track by sometime next year. And while global oil demand may return to pre-pandemic levels in late , U. This is discussed below.

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